Density in Cedar Rapids: The Fuller Fourteen

Number 1! Census tract 18, still Linn County's densest (Source: density.website. Used without permission.)

 

The 2020 Census data are out, and while there are doubtless some anomalies in the data, it is clear that some areas of some metros are becoming more dense. The Census Bureau has a Data Viewer that makes it quick and easy to compare population density across tracts. It is interesting to compare these new data with the excellent aggregation of 2016 estimates at density.website, or with the last census at sites like this.

I used the 2016 estimates in my survey of urban neighborhoods last summer. The top five tracts by population density were (1) 18, northeast Cedar Rapids along 1st Avenue from 16th to 29th (see above); (2) 17, most of Wellington Heights on the southeast side; (3) 4, northeast of Uptown Marion; (4) 14, downtown and northeast Cedar Rapids below 16th Street; (5) 23, northwest Cedar Rapids along 1st Avenue from the railroad tracks to Edgewood Road.

These five tracts continue among the leaders based on the 2020 census, but they have some new dense friends! This table contains all the tracts with density above 4000 people per square mile. This is an arbitrary and convenient cutoff, but there is also a significant dropoff below 4000. The next highest are 3642, 3344, and 3110, so these 14 are definitely in a class by themselves.

2020 RANK	CENSUS TRACT	LOC.	2020 DENSITY	2010 DENSITY	NOTES
1	18	NE	6284.5	6043	#1 in 2016
2	17	SE	5854.0	6118	#2 in 2016
3	22	SW/NW	4907.9	3289
4	4	Marion	4800.6	4774	#3 in 2016
5	1.02	Marion	4496.1	4392	NEW! (was part of #1)
6	23	NW	4495.5	4414	#5 in 2016
7	10.02	NW	4480.3	4747	#6 in 2016
8	2.12	NE	4471.4	4222	NEW! (was part of #2.07)
9	14	NE/SE	4320.2	4465	#4 in 2016
10	10.05	SW/NW	4170.8	4221	NEW! (was part of #10.03)
11	2.09	Marion/NE	4126.3	3624	NEW! (was part of #2.03)
12	10.04	SW/NW	4062.1	3841	NEW! (was part of #10.03)
13	11.01	NW	4055.0	3731
14	19	NE/SE	4023.3	4308	#7 in 2016

Do I wish there were only twelve such tracts, so I could refer to them as the Dense Dozen? Yes, reader, I confess I do.

Number three! Census tract 22 is storming up the charts (Source: density.website. Used without permission.)

Five of the "Fuller Fourteen" are newly-created by the Census Bureau for 2020, but it is possible to compare them with the same area in 2010. 

Three tracts stand out for high levels of growth/densification, none moreso than #22 across the river from downtown, which includes the burgeoning Kingston Village area with its condos and row houses. Its 2010 status reflected heavy flood damage two years earlier. It grew by nearly 50 percent over the decade, rising from the depths to land on third place on the list. It is also tied for third in the county in diversity, according to USA Today's Diversity Index. Also growing fast are the newly-created #2.09 east of C Avenue NE between Boyson and Robins Roads crossing into Marion (+13.9%) and #11.01 east of Edgewood Road NW between F and O Avenues (+8.7%). Notably quite a few of Cedar Rapids' fastest growing census tracts are on the west side, as are its most racially diverse tracts.

New condo development in tract 22

Some areas remain on the density charts despite losing population over the decade. Tract #19, including downtown and some of the MedQuarter and the Moundview neighborhood lost 6.6 percent of its population and fell seven notches on the density countdown; tract #17, including the Wellington Heights neighborhood and some blocks to the east, lost 4.5 percent of its population but remains the second-densest tract. Based on the intermediate numbers from density.website, the losses in #17 occurred early in the decade and it has grown somewhat since then; the losses in #19 have occurred since the 2016 estimates. I live in tract #17 and work and go to church in #19, so I hope it wasn't anything I said!

Some degree of density is key to a walkable neighborhood, because you have to have the numbers to support schools, stores, and other destinations within walking distance, as well as reasonable public transit. Density doesn't necessarily mean crowded, nor does it necessarily mean walkable.

Walk Score doesn't assign values to census tracts, and the scores are highly sensitive to specific location. For example, my friend Phillip and I both live in census tract #17, nine blocks apart; the Walk Score for his address is 75, whereas mine is 30. Nevertheless it's clear that walkability in densely-populated core neighborhoods is higher than that in more outlying areas even as those areas get more densely-populated.

Tract #18     43, 77

Tract #17     30, 75

Tract #22     62, 75

Tract #2.09   5, 37

Tract #11.01 8, 14

We can only hope that as density increases, the infrastructure and services needed for walkability will follow.

What this lacks is an explanation for why particular tracts are getting more or less dense. This is something we can explore in future posts.

SEE ALSO: Peyton Chung, "Which Neighborhood in Greater Washington Has the Highest Density? Hint: It's Not in D.C." Greater Greater Washington, 20 August 2021

Weird census outcome: Jefferson County, Iowa

 

Fairfield town square, 2019

When my friends and I visited Fairfield two summers ago, I was intrigued by the area's ability to buck the trend of depopulating small town Iowa (and much of the rest of America as well). At the time, based on census estimates, Jefferson County was one of seven Iowa counties that was growing faster in the 2010s than the United States as a whole. The other six were around Des Moines and Cedar Rapids, the state's two largest metropolitan areas.

Come the 2020 census data, released this summer, and the picture is about the same, with six counties growing faster than the United States' growth rate of 7.4 percent for the decade:

1. Dallas (west of Des Moines) + 50.7%
2. Johnson (Iowa City, south of Cedar Rapids) + 16.8%
3. Polk (Des Moines) + 14.3%
4. Warren (south of Des Moines) + 13.4%
5. Story (Ames, north of Des Moines) + 10.0%
6. Linn (Cedar Rapids) +9.0%

Missing from the list? Jefferson County. Incomprehensibly, it shows at 7.0 percent drop for the decade, making Iowa's seventh biggest loss for a county.

The annual Census estimates for Jefferson County show steady growth through the decade:

YEAR	POPULATION
2010 census	16,843
2011 est	17,096
2012 est	17,278
2013 est	17,629
2014 est	17,793
2015 est	17,906
2016 est	18,063
2017 est	18,219
2018 est	18,256
2019 est	18,295
2020 census	15,663

Based on those estimates, I confidently predicted in 2019 that "In 2020 it will surely break its census record; the previous mark of 17,839 was set in... 1870!" Instead, we're looking at the lowest figure since 1890. 

Barring a sudden mass exodus from Fairfield, or a boycott of the census by its residents, I can provide no reasonable explanation for this. I've reached out to my Fairfield contact to see if there's been any local response.

Jefferson County aside, the largest population increases among rural counties in Iowa are Sioux (6.4%) and Dickinson (6.2%) in the northwest Iowa Great Lakes region, followed by Marion (5.5%) and Clarke (5.0%), which are south of Des Moines. Southwest Iowa suffered the broadest population losses--far southwest Fremont County lost 11.2 percent--with the northern third of Iowa away from the Missouri River mostly negative as well.

SEE ALSO: "Small Towns, Rural Areas, and State Legislatures," 11 June 2019