Whither Iowa?

In an election that sent mixed messages nationally, Iowa clearly reaffirmed its move to the Republicans in 2020. President Trump won the state by eight percentage points, U.S. Senator Joni Ernst was reelected by a 52-45 margin, Republicans gained two U.S. House seats, and the party strengthened its margins in both houses of the legislature. Iowa's Republican victories contrast it with Georgia, which voted for the Democratic presidential candidate for only the fourth time since 1960, and Arizona, which had previously gone Democratic only once since 1948. (For more on swinging swing states, see Mejia and Skelley 2020.)

Andrew Green, a political scientist at Central College in Pella, concludes: I was of the mind that the right candidate and the right message was the ticket to win back some of those voters. And if Joe Biden isn't that candidate, I'm not sure what other national level Democrat would be able to come into the state and win back those voters. I fear they're lost, if not for a generation but maybe longer than that (Murphy 2020: 7A).

Iowa went for Trump by eight percentage points in an election that Joe Biden won nationally by four. This twelve point swing away from the winner was one more than in 2016, when Trump won Iowa by nine and lost the national popular vote by two. The last election with a greater swing was at the height of the farm crisis in 1988, when Democratic candidate Michael S. Dukakis won Iowa by 10 points while losing nationally by eight to George H.W. Bush.

The crisis this year is the coronavirus. Iowa currently ranks #3 in the world for the prevalence of COVID-19 infections (New York Times 2020), and we've just had our worst week yet for deaths from COVID, but Republicans seem to pay no price for irresponsible statements and actions from Trump on down to the state level. Our irritable governor, Kim Reynolds, was not wrong when she said the election results "validated the direction we are taking the state."

If a pandemic and an erratic President couldn't shake that direction, I think Iowa's course is set for at least the next decade. Looking at the map above, we can identify:

• four solidly blue counties: Johnson (Iowa City), Linn (Cedar Rapids), Polk (Des Moines), and Story (Ames), including the state's two largest cities and the two larger state universities
• five counties that were roughly evenly split: Black Hawk (Waterloo-Cedar Falls), Dallas (West Des Moines), Dubuque, Jefferson (Fairfield), and Scott (Davenport), a mix of legacy industrial, burgeoning suburb, and Fairfield
• 90 solidly red counties: all the rest, which include rural and struggling urban areas

Data from the U.S. Census Bureau (except the GDP numbers, which come from the Bureau of Economic Analysis) show the election results reflect the reality of two Iowas, one of which is older, whiter, and poorer than the other, shrinking in population but still numerically stronger:

	IOWA	Blue counties (4)	Divided (5)	Red counties (90)
Population 2019	3,155,070	965,124 (30.6)	513,230 (16.2)	1,676,716 (53.1)
Pop. Growth 2000-2019	228,746	207,835	82,466	-61,555
Job Growth 2010-2019	143,194	77,335	40,382	25,474
Pct White 2019	89.9	84.3	86.8	94.0
Pct 25-34 w BA+ 2019	4.3	6.6	5.2	2.7
GDP (x $1000) 2018	189,701,596	73,927,772 (39.0)	29,515,941 (15.6)	86,257,883 (45.5)

Iowa's political and economic patterns vary less by urban vs. rural than those of the nation as a whole, the counties Biden won account for 70 percent of the economy--very close to the Trump/Clinton divide in 2016 (Muro, Duke, You and Maxim 2020; see also Rucker and Costa 2020). The Brookings Institution authors conclude:

Blue and red America reflect two very different economies: one oriented to diverse, often college-educated workers in professional and digital services occupations, and the other whiter, less-educated, and more dependent on "traditional" industries.... The economic rift that persists in dividing the nation is a problem because it underscores the near-certainty of both continued clashes between the political parties and continued alienation and misunderstandings.

But the problem isn't economic diversity, as the authors eventually admit, or even inequality of outcomes. Diversity should be a source of resilience in uncertain times, and if some sectors of the state are succeeding better than others, we can use some of those resources to help struggling sectors and places improve. One might expect that Republicans would use the political power they've attained since 2010 to do exactly that, but as I've argued, they've tended to, in the words of Muro et al., "stoke the hostility and indignation held by a significant minority." (President Trump made this a major source of his political appeal, and weirdly for an incumbent President made his biggest 2016-20 gains nationally in the counties with the least job growth, but he's been far from the only one.) More of this, they conclude, would be "a particularly unsustainable situation for Americans in communities of all sizes."

A collaboration between Strong Towns and Urban3 argues for more local-driven initiatives, including matching microgrants for property improvements, reform of outdated and restrictive zoning and building codes, and improving walkability (Marohn 2020). Others have suggested a rural housing initiative, investment in local human capital, taking advantage of specific local assets like access to natural areas, and encouraging immigration (Menner 2018, Benfield and Epstein 2012, Brown 2018, Gilmartin and Hurley 2018). Another Brookings study suggests several initiatives President Biden and the next Congress could undertake to update struggling economies as well as the bewildering array of federal rural policies, including access to broadband and financial capital; regional integration; and thorough policy review (Pipa and Geismar 2020). 

An Iowa that acts to support its strong towns and rural areas will be a stronger, more attractive state in years to come. But symbolic acts of resentment--"defunding" Planned Parenthood, preempting school districts' and county auditors' attempts to operate during the pandemic, passing bill after bill against gun control or abortion, banning non-existent Sanctuary Cities--are cheaper and easier.  "Let's stop pretending it was 'economic anxiety,'" Democratic pollster Conrad Belcher told the Washington Post. "That ugliness is about tribalism. Many of the most hotly contested states are ground zero of the changes happening in America.... Where this battle is hottest is where diversity is greatest" (Rucker and Costa 2020). 

Iowa ranks 11th among U.S. states in how much our demographics resemble the America of the 1950s (Kentucky is 1st; Kolko 2016). We can't and shouldn't try to preserve that; continuing down the road of tribalism would make the whole state, including where cities have been successful, less attractive. For now, it may be enough to say with Lyz Lenz:

This town, this state, it belongs as much to me as it does to anyone else. I don't know why I keep waiting around for Iowans to say I belong. I belong. I have now lived here longer than I have lived anywhere else. And truly, the problems here exist everywhere: it's just easier to hide from them in other places.... And I don't know who needs to hear this, but the place you are, it belongs to you, too.... Even if you have to watch as local politicians annually debate your right to make your own healthcare choices. Even if you have to watch people who make your body and your life a joke get reelected over and over. (Lenz 2020) 

Lenz concludes, "I am here, and I love this town," and so am I; the state's attractions cannot be denied, its successful places are successful for good reasons, and the brain drain in most of the state is likely to remain at most at a steady trickle. Still, the future of the state depends on us committing to having one, which is difficult when nostalgia and resentment keep winning at the polls.

SEE ALSO:

Brookings report: "Building Resilient Rural Places" (1 December 2020)

Erin Murphy, "Iowa's Urban-Rural Divide Widens," The Gazette (Cedar Rapids), 8 November 2020, 1A, 7A

"The Youth Movement and Cedar Rapids," 21 June 2020

"Election 2018 and What Happens Next," 20 November 2018

"What is the Future of Iowa's Small Towns?" 3 July 2018

I Wish This Parking Was...

It's the day after Thanksgiving, when Strong Towns members near and far leap out of bed at the crack of dawn to--what else?--document their town's excess parking capacity, which is often glaringly visible even on what is normally the busiest retail day of the year. I've been at this since 2015, when I went to the north edge of town to observe scenes like this...

big box store, Collins Road, 11/27/2015

...and this...

big box store, Blairs Ferry Road, 11/27/2015

In these two cases, there were many customers in both stores, and many cars in the parking lots I depicted. The problem is that the lots are so big that there was much excess space anyhow--even on Black Friday!

Five years later, I had been looking forward to re-visiting the places I'd documented that first year. However, the coronavirus pandemic has forced many plans to change, and Black Friday Parking is no exception. It would be no surprise to find excess parking capacity today, even in the busiest shopping areas. It would be like shooting fish in a barrel, and no doubt even less interesting.

Happily, the good people at Strong Towns came up with an alternate plan: Show us a place where there’s too much parking, but more importantly, tell us (or even illustrate for us, if you’re artistically inclined!) exactly what we’re missing out on by not taking a more flexible, adaptable approach to that space (Herriges 2020). You can see results from around the world by searching for the hashtag #iwishthisparkingwas on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram.

So I did not return to Collins and Blairs Ferry Roads this year. It may actually be the oceans of unused surface parking I documented in 2015 are the highest, best use of that land, although it probably doesn't deserve the rich dollop of public infrastructure that helped build the Target and all those strip malls. (One could, alternatively, make the argument that foregoing sprawl would leave more natural areas and/or farmland.) 

This year I went to the core of the city, where sadly we also have oceans of surface parking that goes unused no matter what day it is. I took this picture in Czech Village, surely my favorite sector of the city.

Czech Village has preserved a gorgeous shopping district on 16th Avenue, which was the center of what used to be a vibrant working class neighborhood. Much of that housing disappeared after the flood of 2008, but the district remains, enhanced by some great live-work spaces. Those residences aside, it is essentially "drive-to urbanism," and both 15th and 17th Avenues are lined with surface parking lots to accommodate visitors. Developing 15th Avenue would make a nice connection between the district and the National Czech and Slovak Museum and Library, but I chose to pick on 17th Avenue instead, because it could connect to remaining residential neighborhoods across C Street. It was difficult to develop much here with confidence, so near to the river before there was adequate flood protection, but that is now largely in place, so that obstacle has been removed.

I wish this parking were a series of four-plex apartments, the missing middle housing that Cedar Rapids so desperately needs, and probably better long-term investments than the $300,000 condos that have sprouted in the adjoining neighborhoods of Kingston Village and New Bohemia.

As development continues near the river, the land value in Czech Village and the other neighborhoods may increase to the point that surface parking lots become irresistible targets for improvement. This is less likely to be the case in the MedQuarter, where the biggest stakeholders are the health care giants not private landowners. Just east of downtown are some parking craters of staggering size. Here's one, in the 500 block of 7th Street SE.

I don't know that my phone camera can capture its enormity. I tried again, with video.

Even on a weekday, this parking is excessive. I wish this parking were any sort of block that could support a 24-hour downtown. There's room for quite a bit of housing, and maybe a corner store-- groceries and hardware historically abounded in this neighborhood, but that was long ago--and even a pocket park. It is a scandal that this much land in such a valuable part of the city is going unused.

SEE ALSO

"Black Friday Parking 2019," 29 November 2019

"Black Friday Parking," 27 November 2015 [in which I again used the expression "shooting fish in a barrel"]

A parking mystery

 

2nd Avenue, looking north/east from the intersection at 12th Street

Here's a curious thing: a bunch of cars parked along both sides of the 1200 block of 2nd Avenue SE, an area that has a lot of vacant lots and empty buildings. There are more residences on the south side of the street, but they have alley parking behind their buildings. So who are all these people parking here?

A clue is behind us, where the blocked-off portion of 2nd Avenue dead ends into the back of the (relatively) new Physicians Clinic of Iowa building.

2nd Avenue, looking south/west from the intersection at 12th Street

I think that's a reasonable guess, because, reader, that's where I was going! And that's why I was expecting to park on 2nd Avenue (which eventually I did, farther down the block).

There's a lot of off-street parking around PCI, including both a surface lot and a fancy garage on the other side of 10th Street. Are they filled to capacity? Probably not. But I didn't even look. I wasn't planning to be long at the clinic, just to run in and drop off the results of some bloodwork. And I automatically rejected the rigamarole of the regular parking lots: driving in, finding a space, walking out, walking back in, finding my car, and driving out. It seemed easier to park on the street.

I parked farther down the street than I'd planned, but it was a pleasant day, and an easier walk down a quiet street than through a parking garage.

This seems to teach a lesson about parking infrastructure, although I confess I'm not sure what it is. There's an excess of parking in the MedQuarter, which we knew already, but if the garage (below) weren't there, more people would park on the street, right? Maybe once there's a critical mass of cars in the garage the street is the easier option. I prefer driving US30 towards Chicago than the interstates, but if the interstates weren't there US30 would be a hellstrip.

I'm welcome to park here, but, um, no thanks.

I think this is important, because parking garages are expensive to build, particularly if they're not going to be used to capacity, and surface parking lots may be the most wasteful way we use land. And yet, I don't know what lesson to draw from this partial insight.

The city by morning

I've always loved mornings. I don't always love getting out of bed, but once up I love mornings.

I love being up and about when the city is still fairly quiet.

I love walking around the commercial areas when the shops aren't yet open.

I think I love the potential energy of this time of day...

...the wide range of possibilities before they get seized (or don't).

I might see someone moving around inside, or unlocking a service door.

It's another day at work, and who knows what it will bring? This early in the day, we have the innocence of not knowing and the luxury of hope.

I took these in New Bohemia and Czech Village the morning after the 2020 presidential election.

Fresh from a workout, coffee cup in my hand from Brewhemia, I took refuge from the national angst in the reality of my city.

A few hours from now, the potential energy will have become kinetic, and this quiet corner will be full of motion and noise.

Maybe a car would be scooting ahead of me through the crosswalk. Maybe the man standing where I am now will wear a surly look and a MAGA hat.

For now, the city rests, like a sleeping toddler. And I love it.

Chuck Marohn says, "Everything you are passionate about at the national level has a local analog that needs your attention as we move forward.... The result of those efforts won't be ambiguous--show your place love and it will love you back."