Monday, December 26, 2022

Should This Intersection Be a Roundabout? Should Any?

Should this intersection be a roundabout?

intersection with turning car
(Google Earth screen capture)

The four-way stop at Forest Drive and Cottage Grove Avenue, right by Washington High School on the southeast side of Cedar Rapids, has twice had roundabout proposals rejected. A third bite at that apple is therefore unlikely, but is that a good thing? Anyway, roundabouts are the pumpkin spice of the street design world right now, with strong feelings on both sides, and therefore we must have an opinion. Might as well be an informed one.

We can move the conversation along a little by noting roundabouts are likely to be useful (if still controversial) in some places and not useful in others. A roundabout at the intersection of U.S. 30 and State Route 1 outside of Mt. Vernon untangled a problematic intersection. Commonly-cited advantages of roundabouts compared with traffic lights are they move vehicle traffic more efficiently while lowering their maximum speed (a win-win!), with fewer injuries, cost less, and aren't subject to power outages. Strong Towns (2018) notes that “roundabouts can even out traffic flow compared to typical signalized intersections which tend to create stop-and-go lineups of cars. But whether they can relieve truly congestion depends on what is causing it…” The "Mythbusters" show even found roundabouts moved traffic better than four-way stops (see Ihnen 2013Gursten 2014).

Forest and Cottage Grove are in town, about two miles from the city center. Cottage Grove had an average daily traffic count of 5800 in 2017. (Forest Drive’s count hasn’t appeared on the map since at least 2009.) The main traffic issues, though, occur at the beginning and end of the school day, so roughly 7:30-8 a.m. and 2:30-3 p.m. 

The location of the high school at that intersection means that we’re anticipating cyclists and pedestrians as well.  Here the Internet is frankly not encouraging. For cyclists, the Iowa Department of Transportation advises:

Bicyclists have a legal right to ride on most roadways just like motorized traffic. Roundabouts are just like other intersections in that bicyclists may either follow the rules of the road and maintain travel on the roadway or use available paths and crosswalks to safely bypass the roundabout.

The New York Department of Transportation adds these tips:

1.     If you are comfortable riding in traffic, take the lane and circulate like you are a vehicle, making sure you yield to traffic in the circle when entering.

2.     Ride at the speed of the circular roadway to discourage cars from passing you.

3.     When you exit the roundabout, use your right hand signal.

4.     If you are uncomfortable riding through the roundabout, dismount and walk your bike as a pedestrian at the designated crosswalks.

But it’s one thing to have “a legal right,” it’s quite another to feel safe exercising it. Indeed, a 2021 review of 49 studies mostly from Europe found:

Crash data and observations suggest that when cyclists “take the lane” and operate as vehicles – as is allowed or even recommended in some current design guidelines – this leads to conflicts and crashes between circulating cyclists and entering drivers who may have “looked but failed to see” (and thus failed to yield to) the cyclist.

They conclude that discretion is the better part of valor.

Providing separated cycle paths around the roundabout seems to be a lower-risk and more comfortable design solution, although care must be taken to encourage appropriate yielding at crossings.

This makes sense, though a series of intersections at which diversion is required is going to get frustrating, resulting in either more aggressive cycling or no cycling at all, neither of which are outcomes we should desire.

Satisfactory solutions for pedestrians are also elusive. The Iowa Department of Transportation recommends:

Pedestrians should always use the crosswalks; and make sure the vehicle operators see him/her before entering the crosswalk.

This seems reasonable enough, but this video from Minnesota-based traffic engineers Stonebrooke…

…shows that we are expecting pedestrians to wander out of their way to find the crosswalk, and expecting vehicle drivers to stop for them when they ask to cross. We are expecting strollers to go straight while we push them with one arm while holding the other one out for all to see, and we are expecting we will not feel silly doing that. Good luck, with all of that.

Strong Towns (2016) allows “a roundabout can provide good, safe crossing opportunities for pedestrians, but only if engineers have pedestrians and bicyclists in mind when they design the roundabout…” This means (1) single-lane roundabouts not multi-lane, (2) not having pedestrians cross lanes with “particularly heavy” exiting volumes, (3) maintaining clear sight lines for drivers, (4) locating crosswalks away from the circle itself, (5) pedestrians signals to accommodate blind pedestrians, and (6) beaucoup public education.

They also note all this works “only if drivers use them properly.”

For this reason, Jeff Speck (Walkable City Rules, Island Press, 2018) wants roundabouts out of urban areas.

There are a number of features that make roundabouts feel less walkable than traditional intersections. 
  • First, they ask people who are trying to walk in a straight line to divert well to the side, and then back again, in order to keep moving across town. 
  • Second, while they require cars to slow and yield to pedestrians, vehicles never actually come to a full stop unless something is blocking them; roundabouts feel dynamic, and pedestrians prefer environments that are static. 
  • Third, they introduce into urban areas a design vocabulary which is unavoidably automotive; they swoop. (2018: 164-165, bullets added)

But our intersection isn't in an urban downtown, it's two miles away by a high school. Traffic is heavy for half an hour to an hour on school mornings and afternoons, and light the rest of the day. I think the roundabout might be highly functional 22-23 hours a day: drivers on either street could proceed without having to come to a full stop, and pedestrians might be glad to have them out of the way quicker.

It's those brief periods when traffic through this intersection is heaviest that give me pause. Moreover, it's heavy with inexperienced drivers taking themselves to school. Not many people walk to the high school; as Cedar Rapids schools get bigger and more spread out, fewer students walk. However, because of where the stop is located, city bus riders must also cross both streets to get to the school. As confusing as four-way stops can be, would people on foot be more confident getting across the street if cars were not coming to full stops?

We can hope for more pedestrian and cyclist traffic in the future. Just because the area isn't urbanized now, there's no reason that it should never be, given its proximity to the city center and development on 1st Avenue. A federal Safe Routes to School grant was recently used to build a wide sidewalk through this very intersection that coincidentally links the Interurban and CeMar trails. Does, or could, this encourage more walking and cycling, at all times of day?

Bottom line: There would be certain advantages to putting a roundabout here, but its effect on pedestrian and cyclist behavior now and particularly in the future tells me we shouldn't do it.

Where Should We Build Roundabouts?

So, are we dissing all roundabouts? By no means! That would be the sort of reflexive know-nothing opposition for which Boomers like me are so famous, and we can't support that. So, let's look for some intersections where (a) there is a complex intersection of two high-traffic streets; (b) there is currently a traffic light; and (c) it is not nor is it likely to become an urbanized area.

This town is replete with intersections possessing all three of those conditions, and so is your town, because of the way we've all been developing for 50-75 years. I'd look in the same concentrated commercial areas I visit for Black Friday Parking:
  • 1st Avenue and Collins Road E
  • Council Street and Collins Road NE
  • 16th Avenue and Williams Boulevard SW
  • Edgewood Road and Williams Boulevard SW
  • Edgewood Road and Blairs Ferry Road NE
  • probably a lot more, but these would be towards the top!

SEE ALSO: "When Are Roundabouts Indicated?" 2 August 2018

Kai Ryssdal and Nicholas Guiang, "Don't Panic, It's Just a Roundabout," Marketplace, 22 December 2022

Extreme roundabouting: (I am absolutely not recommending this!!)


Wednesday, December 21, 2022

Five Favorite Streets

 

bakery with windows on front
1903 storefront at 73 16th Avenue SW

"What are your five favorite streets in your town?" asked someone on Mastodon the other day. Unfortunately, I can't remember who inspired this post, but it does allow me to promote my presence on the oddness that is Mastodon: You'll find me at @brucefnesmith@mastodon.coffee. There are lots of urbanists on Mastodon!

I mulled, cogitated, and in time came up with five streets in Cedar Rapids that I love. I'm going on pure visceral reaction here, though I will try to explain my love for each, which seems based in a stew of walkability and nostalgia. The streets are listed alphabetically; they are too different for me to attempt to rank them. I add the caveat that I've lived and worked my entire Cedar Rapids life on the east side, so I just don't know the west side as well. It gets some love, too, however!

Bever Avenue SE (2400-3000).

A lovely urban boulevard that lost quite a bit of its tree canopy in the 2020 derecho, but still retains its aesthetic charm. Pedestrians gravitate to it because many of the residential streets to its south lack sidewalks. On the north side is Bever Park, one of the town's largest and oldest parks which includes two playgrounds, a duck pond, swimming pool, picnic shelter and wooded trails. Average daily traffic count: 4980. Served by the #2 bus below Memorial Drive.

Yes, but: Despite the thoughtfully stenciled sharrow, auto traffic moves too fast for comfortable cycling, and the lack of stops requires cautious crossing from the residential area to the park. Besides the park, there are few attractions within an easy walking distance.

Street between houses and a park
Bever Avenue, looking west from park entrance

4th Avenue SE (1900-2100).

Old-fashioned houses are charming if on the large side. This is one of my favorite streets to walk at Christmastime. The poet Paul Engle (1908-1991) had a childhood paper route here, and in his memoir described the tree-lined street, trees that spread up and outward, meeting high above the middle of the street, so that walking along them in summer was going through a green tunnel. Those houses at a distance looked calm, quiet, outside the turbulent world. But to a boy of twelve they were crammed with excitement, with living, tense, often wild faces. Windows were the way I looked into their eyes (A Lucky American Childhood [University of Iowa Press, 1996], p. 62). The #2 bus runs close by.

Yes, but: Like 8th Avenue in Marion, which is another street I love, the lovely houses are going to be too big for most of us. It's a strenuous though doable walk to downtown or any other attractions.

Street facing large older houses
4th Avenue, looking east from 20th Street

Johnson Avenue NW (200-300).

Shady older street with a mix of houses, within walking distance of a supermarket, schools, churches and some small offices. At one end is Haskell Park, a pocket park named for the state legislator who championed the Lincoln Highway. Farther down Johnson is a Dairy Queen. Across 1st Avenue, alas a crossing not to be taken lightly, are Cleveland Park and the baseball and football stadia. Downtown is about a mile and a half away. Served by bus routes #8 and #10.

Yes, but: As a segment of the original Lincoln Highway, it connects two high-traffic stroads.

Street between two rows of houses
Johnson Ave NW (Google maps screen capture)

Longwood Drive NE.

Longwood and its sister streets, Dunreath and Gwendolyn, were shoehorned between 19th and 20th Streets some time in the 1920s or 30s. We lived on Longwood from 1997-2007, and I loved the closeness of the small lots. On the edge of the Mound View neighborhood, there is a pocket park (Tomahawk) at the end of the street, and beyond it the CeMar Trail and the athletic fields of Mount Mercy University. Franklin Middle School, the Tic Toc restaurant, and the Old Neighborhood Pub are within easy walks, and Coe College isn't terribly far, as I can personally attest. The street has neither curbs nor gutters, but slopes toward the middle, which during rainstorms creates a creek known as Big Al. The #3 bus runs close by.

Yes, but: There are no sidewalks. The closest elementary school closed years ago, and the second-closest is shortly going to be closed, too.

Narrow street with houses on either side
Longwood Drive, looking north from C Avenue
(Google Maps screen capture)

16th Avenue SW (000-120).

This was the main commercial street in pre-flood Czech Village, though bars and knick-knacks have replaced essential services to the neighborhood that is no longer. Thanks to visionary property owners like Mary Kay McGrath and Bob Schaeffer, Czech Village has managed to retain much of its historic charm through this transitionary period.The narrow street makes walking easy, and it contains probably my favorite bar (Lion Bridge, at 59) and coffee house (Cafe St. Pio, at 99). If I were a plant person, my favorite plant store would be Moss, at 74. The Cedar Valley Nature Trail crosses 16th Avenue at A Street. Average daily traffic count: 4720. The #7 bus stops at 16th and C.

Yes, but: There are few residences nearby now, though plans for development of the flooded area to the south are in the works.

Street with old-fashioned shops and parking
16th Avenue looking southish from A Street.
Lion Bridge's courtyard is on the left. 

SEE ALSO:

"The Urbanest Places in Cedar Rapids?" 16 July 2020

"The Place Where I Live," 1 April 2013

Cedar Rapids bus routes: https://www.cedar-rapids.org/residents/city_buses/routes.php

Cedar Rapids average daily traffic counts:   https://iowadot.gov/maps/msp/traffic/2021/cities/CedarRapids.pdf

Linn County trail map: https://linncountytrails.org/trails/

Saturday, December 3, 2022

Is Iowa Becoming Even More Republican?

 

Map of Iowa counties and 2022 election vote
Governor Kim Reynolds won 95 counties and reelection

Iowa turned red in 2014 after years as a purple state, and Republican control of the state endured what was a pretty good year nationally for Democrats in 2018. Governor Reynolds, winning her first election, won majorities in 88 of Iowa's 99 counties, and the Republicans controlled both houses of the legislature. This year, notwithstanding the coronavirus pandemic, the Trump presidency, and the ongoing decline of most of the state, Reynolds won 95 counties and Republicans gains in both houses neared supermajority levels (with a handful of races still to be decided). All six Iowa members of the U.S. Congress are now Republican. Are Iowa's recent Republican tendencies getting even stronger?

I will, with due caution given limited data, say yes. There's variation across election years and indeed across races, so there's no certainty that Democrats won't do better statewide in 2024 than they did this year. But all indications are that Republicans have increased their hold on the rural vote, and at least this year made substantial gains in some urban counties.

After the 2018 election I looked at the ten most populous counties in Iowa, which accounted for a majority of the state's overall population as well as 74.5 percent of statewide job growth. The story seemed to be that large urban counties were Democratic to the extent that they were also high in population and job growth, job growth, and (by Iowa standards) non-white population. Extending the analysis  the following summer to all Iowa counties highlighted the difference between growing and non-growing counties. Reynolds won over 60 percent of the vote in the 70 counties that had lost population since 2010, while barely winning 40 percent of the vote in the seven counties that grew faster than the U.S. as a whole. 

Curiously, the number of votes cast in the two groups of counties was roughly the same. With Democrats strong in growing areas, and Republicans strong in non-growing areas, time seemed to be on the Democrats' side. While time may in fact be on the Democrats' side, so far the numbers are trending the opposite way.

We're down to six counties that grew faster than the U.S. as a whole; all are large by Iowa standards. They include Polk, Story, Dallas and Warren counties in the Des Moines-Ames area, as well as Johnson and Linn counties in the Cedar Rapids-Iowa City area. (Included in the 2018 fast-growing group, but omitted here, is little Jefferson county in southeast Iowa. After showing population growth every year in annual U.S. Census Bureau estimates, the 2020 census showed a 7 percent decline there since 2010, an anomaly I discussed here.) Scott County (Davenport) and Dubuque County (Dubuque) are other large Iowa counties that grew faster than the overall state population increase in the 2010s.

Most of these eight large and growing counties showed pretty consistent partisanship across statewide elections from 2016-2022. Johnson County (Iowa City) is by far the most Democratic each year, while the suburban Des Moines counties of Dallas and Warren are the most Republican. The slower-growing urban counties of Dubuque and Scott, on the other hand, both shifted substantially to the Republicans in the 2022 gubernatorial race.

PCT R/D BY COUNTY, 2016-2022

COUNTY

(growth 10-20)

2016 PRES

(Trump/Clinton)

2018 GOV

(Reynolds/Hubbell)

2020 PRES

(Trump/Biden)

2022 GOV

(Reynolds/DeJear)

Johnson +16.8

29.5-70.5

27.1-72.9

27.9-72.1

29.7-70.3

Story +10.0

43.1-56.9

39.7-60.3

41.1-58.9

44.9-55.1

Polk +14.3

43.8-56.2

40.7-59.3

42.2-57.8

46.0-54.0

Linn +9.0

45.1-54.9

42.8-57.2

43.0-57.0

47.4-52.6

Scott +5.7

49.2-50.8

48.2-51.8

48.2-51.8

55.7-44.3

Dallas +50.7

55.2-44.8

51.7-48.3

51.0-49.0

55.9-44.1

Dubuque +6.0

50.7-49.3

49.3-50.7

48.5-51.5

58.3-41.7

Warren +13.4

58.7-41.3

53.9-46.1

58.6-41.4

63.2-36.8

All Others -1.2

62.8-37.2              

58.9-41.1

62.8-37.2

68.6-31.4

IOWA +4.7

55.0-45.0

51.4-48.6

54.1-45.9

59.5-40.5

Sioux +6.4

86.5-13.5

86.8-13.2

83.9-16.1

90.9-09.1

Dickinson +6.2

(Iowa Great Lakes area)

68.8-31.2

64.0-36.0

67.0-33.0

74.5-25.5

Madison +5.5

66.7-33.3

63.4-36.6

67.5-32.5

71.9-28.1

Clarke +5.0

64.9-35.1

64.7-35.3

68.2-31.8

75.2-24.8

The rest of the state outside these eight counties showed a pretty steady increase in support for Republicans. Collectively, they were 7+ percentage points above statewide in 2016 and 2018, and around 9 percentage points in 2020 and 2022. This holds true even where their population has grown, as witness the strongly Republican Sioux County in northwestern Iowa becoming even more strongly Republican through this period.

The House of Representatives races in these years also showed consistency across large urban counties, but Republican shifts in the rest of the state (including, again, Dubuque and Scott counties). Note that Sioux County, with a population of about 35000, can produce Republican majorities that swamp Democratic majorities from larger counties, particularly Story which is in the same U.S. House district.

CONGRESSIONAL VOTE DIFFERENTIAL BY COUNTY, 2016-2022

COUNTY

2016 HR

2018 HR

2020 HR

2022 HR

Johnson

+27305

+32012

+32028

+27349

Story

  +4815 

+14095

  +7555

+3613

Polk

   +271

+33473

+39247

+26498

Linn

+3361

+16979

+13148

+9907

Scott

+6448

+9270

+5516

+3417

Dallas

  +9828

+2496

+2540

  +1575

Dubuque

+4490

+3077

+278

+2904

Warren

+5922

+2415

+3775

+4529

All Others

+161821

(59.5-40.5)

+51657

(53.7-46.3)

+188604

(60.5-39.5)

+206225

(65.8-34.2)

IOWA

+139861

(54.7-58.2)

+52338

(48.0-52.0)

+97147

(53.0-47.0)

+151283

(56.3-44.7)

Sioux

+11846

+7142

+13271

+11384

Dickinson

+2884

+745

+3630

 +3727

Madison

 +3372

 +2160

+2731

+2492

Clarke

 +321

+414

+1073

+1175

This is admittedly rough analysis, focusing on the dimension of growing vs. not-growing areas, and using results from a relative handful of races. There are other dimensions to consider, including urban/rural, or race. Iowa has a strikingly low nonwhite population, but Democrats tend to do better in counties like Black Hawk (Waterloo) which is "only" 78 percent white. (Even then, Black Hawk went Democratic in the 2022 congressional race but Republican in the gubernatorial race.)

It does suggest that Republican strength overall in the state is growing, with the growth concentrated in shrinking rural areas and possibly slower-growing urban areas. This is consistent with national analysis by The Washington Post, which found among Republican gains in 2022, "many of their largest swings" were in districts Trump won in the 2020 presidential election (Keating, Stevens and Mourtoupalas 2022). Of course, they are looking shifts over two years, whereas I am looking over six years and trying to spot or at least deduce longer-term trends.

So, for the time being, politics in Iowa looks like more of the same, maybe bolder. The state appears to be continuing its shift towards the Republican Party, but not uniformly, so that divisions within the state are increasing. "Whatever it takes, whatever it costs, they are fundamentally trying to change who we are as a country," Reynolds said of Democrats at a Sioux City rally headlined by former President Trump. To the extent that she and the legislature are only here for those who she called "the real Iowa," this will not be a comfortable state for those who are in any way different.

DATA SOURCES: 

Elections 2016-18-20: https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2020/general/canvsummary.pdf

Governor 22: cnn.com/election/2022/results/iowa

House 22: https://www.usatoday.com/elections/results/2022-11-08/us-house/iowa/

SEE ALSO

"Small Towns, Rural Areas, and State Legislatures," 11 June 2019

"Election 2018 and What Happens Next," 20 November 2018

"Turn Red For What," 5 November 2014


Iowa and the vision thing

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