Weird census outcome: Jefferson County, Iowa

 

Fairfield town square, 2019

When my friends and I visited Fairfield two summers ago, I was intrigued by the area's ability to buck the trend of depopulating small town Iowa (and much of the rest of America as well). At the time, based on census estimates, Jefferson County was one of seven Iowa counties that was growing faster in the 2010s than the United States as a whole. The other six were around Des Moines and Cedar Rapids, the state's two largest metropolitan areas.

Come the 2020 census data, released this summer, and the picture is about the same, with six counties growing faster than the United States' growth rate of 7.4 percent for the decade:

1. Dallas (west of Des Moines) + 50.7%
2. Johnson (Iowa City, south of Cedar Rapids) + 16.8%
3. Polk (Des Moines) + 14.3%
4. Warren (south of Des Moines) + 13.4%
5. Story (Ames, north of Des Moines) + 10.0%
6. Linn (Cedar Rapids) +9.0%

Missing from the list? Jefferson County. Incomprehensibly, it shows at 7.0 percent drop for the decade, making Iowa's seventh biggest loss for a county.

The annual Census estimates for Jefferson County show steady growth through the decade:

YEAR	POPULATION
2010 census	16,843
2011 est	17,096
2012 est	17,278
2013 est	17,629
2014 est	17,793
2015 est	17,906
2016 est	18,063
2017 est	18,219
2018 est	18,256
2019 est	18,295
2020 census	15,663

Based on those estimates, I confidently predicted in 2019 that "In 2020 it will surely break its census record; the previous mark of 17,839 was set in... 1870!" Instead, we're looking at the lowest figure since 1890. 

Barring a sudden mass exodus from Fairfield, or a boycott of the census by its residents, I can provide no reasonable explanation for this. I've reached out to my Fairfield contact to see if there's been any local response.

Jefferson County aside, the largest population increases among rural counties in Iowa are Sioux (6.4%) and Dickinson (6.2%) in the northwest Iowa Great Lakes region, followed by Marion (5.5%) and Clarke (5.0%), which are south of Des Moines. Southwest Iowa suffered the broadest population losses--far southwest Fremont County lost 11.2 percent--with the northern third of Iowa away from the Missouri River mostly negative as well.

SEE ALSO: "Small Towns, Rural Areas, and State Legislatures," 11 June 2019

Fairfield: Iowa's minor miracle?

William Henry Coop, original settler of Fairfield, with a young friend

Iowa, in its small way, mirrors a lot of what's happening around the country: some cities growing and prosperous, some cities struggling, and much of the rural area also struggling. With some interesting exceptions, the vast majority of Iowa counties this decade have a shared experience of low incomes, declining working-age population, low job growth, low percentages of those with graduate and professional degrees, and Republican politics; many, though not all, have high levels of child poverty as well.

[Interesting exceptions: Poweshiek (Grinnell College) and Winneshiek (Luther College) Counties have higher-than-average educational attainment but are struggling in other ways. And there's a curious corner of prosperity in far northwestern Iowa, including Dickinson, Lyon and Sioux counties, though these are also losing population.]

And then there's Jefferson County, home of the town of Fairfield. Miles from the nearest urban center, its population is only 18,361, but that's up 9 percent since the 2010 census, making it one of only seven Iowa counties this decade that has grown faster than the nation as a whole. In 2020 it will surely break its census record; the previous mark of 17,839 was set in... 1870! Jefferson County's working-age population has increased only 3.1 percent this decade, but that still makes it one of only eight Iowa counties to gain. The other gaining counties are all in metropolitan areas.

Other fast facts:

• in job growth since 2010, in-migration (international only not domestic), and support for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Fred Hubbell in 2018, Jefferson County looks more like an urban Iowa county
• Jefferson County has the third-highest proportion of those with grad/prof degrees in the state, behind Johnson (University of Iowa) and Story (Iowa State University)
• compared to other counties of its size, Jefferson County has an unusually high working age/child ratio
• three of the counties which border Jefferson (Keokuk, Wapello and Van Buren) are among the state's most struggling

On the other hand:

• while unemployment has declined recently--most recent government numbers have it 2.4 percent--its 13-17 average of 6.7 percent was third highest in the state 
• child poverty is unusually high (24.8 percent, rank 8th among Iowa counties), particularly given its level of growth

With all this in mind, my Corridor Urbanism colleague Ben Kaplan and I--both former journalists, by the way--accompanied by my son Robbie, set out earlier this week to investigate the uniqueness that is Fairfield. Ben's report is forthcoming. Thanks to Mike for hosting us, and to Betsy for talking to us about her hometown.

Betsy is the co-owner of Revelations Coffee Shop...

...which has been doing business in downtown Fairfield since 1994...

...and also deals in books and art.

They also boast the "finest lunch in town," which we cannot validate because it was the only lunch we had in town, but it was mighty fine.

Once we pried ourselves away from the coffee--did I mention half-price refills?--we explored the downtown area. It was active and walkable, though streets are wider than they need to be.

Court Street

The commercial district was full of stores and restaurants... a hardware store across from Revelations, a bike shop down the street, several churches...

First United Methodist Church (1923), which our host Mike formerly served as pastor

...and Hy-Vee and Everybody's Whole Foods an easy walk away. The nearness of residential areas made it very walkable. (Walk Score rates downtown Fairfield 85 for walking and 69 for biking.) There are two Indian restaurants on the square, and the Istanbul Grill is a block away, which comprise more Asian food than you're likely to find in a town of similar size.

I was impressed by the plantings, which a lot of towns feature, but Fairfield's featured an unusual preponderance of wildflowers.

photo by Ben Kaplan

Central Park makes for an excellent public space at the core of the town.

photo by Ben Kaplan

Fairfield features the same mid-block crosswalks into Central Park as does Washington. Burlington Avenue (Business US 34), which runs along the south edge of the park was wider, and the traffic speed faster, than I'm comfortable with, but we made it. Unlike Washington, the central park does not have restrooms. All God's chilluns gotta... you know.

Fairfield is best known for the Maharishi Institute of Management, which occupies the campus of the former Parsons College. Their impact is everywhere: the county's unusual diversity, a lot of the local businesses, much of the wildflower plantings, and, alas, Maharishi Vedic City, a quirky but decidedly suburban subdivision about two miles out of town. Does the unusual religious influence affect outsiders' perception of the town? Negatively or positively?

Fairfield has a lot going for it: walkability, cheap rents, diverse culture, and for those with wheels proximity to Iowa City. And it has a shortage of workers: Betsy of Revelations was surprised by the unemployment numbers from earlier in the decade. "Where are they?" she asked. "I can't find them." She's faced with closing some days because of not enough staff. Young persons, take note! 

And other Iowa towns can note what a difference diversity and entrepreneurship can make.