Iowa and the vision thing

Brenna Bird, Iowa Attorney General

Iowa's legislative session ended this week, and there's not much to say about its efforts that I didn't say last year. In year eight of unified Republican control of state government, the legislative accomplishments (working off the lists in Opsahl 2024 and Sostaric 2024) again were a mix of punitive actions towards unfavored groups...

• funding cuts to the nine regional Area Education Agencies, though without the wholesale gutting advocated by Governor Kim Reynolds
• cracking down on foreign land ownership
• repealing gender balance requirements for voluntary boards
• tighter label requirements for vegan options to meat and eggs, prohibiting their purchase with SNAP or WIC funds
• criminal penalties and deportation (to where?) for illegal immigrants
• barring diversity-equity-inclusion programs at state universities 
• lowering the income eligibility limit for Medicaid
  

...and favors for the favored.

• qualified immunity for armed school personnel, in hopes of overcoming insurance industry objections to the arming
• less inspection for hotels and motels
  
• lowering the legal standard for religious exemptions from state laws (actually a good bill, but in the current climate likely to be used primarily to discriminate)
• limiting local regulation of stormwater and topsoil
• a social studies curriculum that emphasizes cheerleading and de-emphasizes critical understanding
• proposed constitutional amendments calling for a flat state income tax and requiring supermajorities to increase taxes (translation: tax cuts for the rich, fewer public services for everyone else)
  
• restrictions on local governments' use of traffic cameras (we only disapprove of lawbreaking when we aren't the ones doing it)
  

There was good stuff, too: expanded work-based learning, attention to the new and creepy problem of deepfake nudes, and higher teacher salaries, though where they find the money for the salaries while slashing taxes is anybody's guess. (For the impact of revenue cuts on Iowa City schools, see King 2024.)

But while I'm glad to see the legislature go home, I'd say the poster children for Iowa's medieval attitude towards anyone who can't keep up are in the executive branch. Governor Kim Reynolds declined state participation in a federal summer meals program for poor children in order, she said, to fight childhood obesity. Attorney General Brenna Bird continues suspension of a state program providing Plan B birth control (Rappard 2023), and in some cases abortions, to rape victims. Her office is investigating the program, they say. What are they finding? They won't say. When will their investigation, now well into year two, conclude? They won't say. As with COVID, our government has other things on its mind than helping people in trouble. If it can't be solved with a tax cut or a gun, we got nothing for you.

Expect more stories like this: Algona Public Library faces possible closures

Whatever you think of this blog, I'm a better writer than I am a politician. While I complain, with ever-increasing erudition, Republican legislative majorities grow and executive branch members return with ever-larger electoral margins. So they have definitely found the formula that pleases the people of Iowa.

So, all congratulations to the election winners and their interest group allies. I am left wondering what is the plan for the future of this state? Perhaps our ever-lowering taxes and light regulatory touch on favored businesses will bring the world to our state, but so far they have not done that.

Iowa is part of a slow-growing region, the Upper Midwest. Our 2023 population estimate was 3,207,004, up 0.52 percent from the 2020 Census, about half the rate of the country as a whole, and up 5.27 percent from 2010 compared to 8.48 nationally. While for most of the 21st century Iowa's population growth has been concentrated in a few urban counties, the 2020-23 county-level data have a mixed message: Polk (Des Moines) and Johnson (University of Iowa) are found among the fastest growing counties, but Story (Iowa State University) added only 33 people, and Linn (Cedar Rapids) is down 0.5 percent. Overall, 31 counties increased in population, with 68 decreasing, though some changes were of trivial magnitude: Cass County lost four people, while Allamakee County gained ten. 

The biggest gains and losses since the 2020 Census:

COUNTY	2023 POP	2020-23 CHG	COUNTY	2023 POP	2020-23 CHG
Dallas	111,092	+11.39%	Henry	19,547	-4.56%
Warren	55,205	+5.36%	Adams	3,544	-4.40%
Lyon	12,324	+3.25%	Osceola	5,978	-3.44%
Johnson	157,528	+3.05%	Crawford	16,013	-3.06%
Polk	505,255	+2.61%	Monona	8.493	-2.97%
Madison	16,971	+2.57%	Lee	32,565	-2.96%
Dickinson	18,056	+1.99%	Chickasaw	11,658	-2.94%
Lucas	8,747	+1.32%	Louisa	10,513	-2.93%
Bremer	25,307	+1.27%	Kossuth	14,396	-2.90%
Jones	20,900	+1.24%	Hardin	16,463	-2.46%

(Calculations by author from U.S. Census Bureau data.)

Despite the mix of stories in the data, five of the ten fastest growing counties are near Des Moines, with two in the northwest corner Iowa Great Lakes area; the others are Johnson, Jones (near Cedar Rapids), and Bremer (near Waterloo and Cedar Falls). None of the ten fastest shrinking counties contain large cities, though Lee County--which briefly had major league baseball in 1871, and peaked in population in 1960--is home to Ft. Madison and Keokuk. Population losses are found all over the state, with clusters in the west central and southeast sections. Osceola, Chickasaw, and Louisa are actually located adjacent to fast-growing counties.

Nationally, large metro areas took some hits during the pandemic, but they have recovered their growth trajectory (see Frey 2024). Pete Saunders (2024) argues this was just a matter of time, as cities increasingly have the economic and social infrastructure that appeals to today's global movers and shakers.... But, in a nation with falling birth rates, and an increasing reliance on international immigration to fuel economic as well as population growth, what does this mean for smaller metros and even smaller non-metro places?

So what's the strategy here, Iowa, if there is one? The legislature will be back in 2025, with plans to resume consideration of bills limiting the legal liability of pesticide manufacturers, make early voting more difficult, ban local police review boards, and deny legal recognition of sex changes (Sostaric 2024).

So far Iowa has managed to reap both the economic benefits of growth in smaller metros like Cedar Rapids, Des Moines, and Iowa City, and the political benefits of bashing them. Tactics may get us from election to election, but with inequality increasing, brains draining, and everything else aging. how do we get to 2049, much less 2074? Do we have anything approaching a vision for our future?

SEE ALSO

"The Age-Race Gap in Iowa," 7 August 2023

"Iowa: You're on the Menu," 9 May 2023

"Is Iowa Becoming Even More Republican?" 3 December 2022