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Andrew Green, a political scientist at Central College in Pella, concludes: I was of the mind that the right candidate and the right message was the ticket to win back some of those voters. And if Joe Biden isn't that candidate, I'm not sure what other national level Democrat would be able to come into the state and win back those voters. I fear they're lost, if not for a generation but maybe longer than that (Murphy 2020: 7A).
Iowa went for Trump by eight percentage points in an election that Joe Biden won nationally by four. This twelve point swing away from the winner was one more than in 2016, when Trump won Iowa by nine and lost the national popular vote by two. The last election with a greater swing was at the height of the farm crisis in 1988, when Democratic candidate Michael S. Dukakis won Iowa by 10 points while losing nationally by eight to George H.W. Bush.
The crisis this year is the coronavirus. Iowa currently ranks #3 in the world for the prevalence of COVID-19 infections (New York Times 2020), and we've just had our worst week yet for deaths from COVID, but Republicans seem to pay no price for irresponsible statements and actions from Trump on down to the state level. Our irritable governor, Kim Reynolds, was not wrong when she said the election results "validated the direction we are taking the state."
If a pandemic and an erratic President couldn't shake that direction, I think Iowa's course is set for at least the next decade. Looking at the map above, we can identify:
- four solidly blue counties: Johnson (Iowa City), Linn (Cedar Rapids), Polk (Des Moines), and Story (Ames), including the state's two largest cities and the two larger state universities
- five counties that were roughly evenly split: Black Hawk (Waterloo-Cedar Falls), Dallas (West Des Moines), Dubuque, Jefferson (Fairfield), and Scott (Davenport), a mix of legacy industrial, burgeoning suburb, and Fairfield
- 90 solidly red counties: all the rest, which include rural and struggling urban areas
|
|
IOWA |
Blue counties (4) |
Divided (5) |
Red counties (90) |
|
Population 2019 |
3,155,070 |
965,124 (30.6) |
513,230 (16.2) |
1,676,716 (53.1) |
|
Pop. Growth 2000-2019 |
228,746 |
207,835 |
82,466 |
-61,555 |
|
Job Growth 2010-2019 |
143,194 |
77,335 |
40,382 |
25,474 |
|
Pct White 2019 |
89.9 |
84.3 |
86.8 |
94.0 |
|
Pct 25-34 w BA+ 2019 |
4.3 |
6.6 |
5.2 |
2.7 |
|
GDP (x $1000) 2018 |
189,701,596 |
73,927,772 (39.0) |
29,515,941 (15.6) |
86,257,883 (45.5) |
Blue and red America reflect two very different economies: one oriented to diverse, often college-educated workers in professional and digital services occupations, and the other whiter, less-educated, and more dependent on "traditional" industries.... The economic rift that persists in dividing the nation is a problem because it underscores the near-certainty of both continued clashes between the political parties and continued alienation and misunderstandings.
But the problem isn't economic diversity, as the authors eventually admit, or even inequality of outcomes. Diversity should be a source of resilience in uncertain times, and if some sectors of the state are succeeding better than others, we can use some of those resources to help struggling sectors and places improve. One might expect that Republicans would use the political power they've attained since 2010 to do exactly that, but as I've argued, they've tended to, in the words of Muro et al., "stoke the hostility and indignation held by a significant minority." (President Trump made this a major source of his political appeal, and weirdly for an incumbent President made his biggest 2016-20 gains nationally in the counties with the least job growth, but he's been far from the only one.) More of this, they conclude, would be "a particularly unsustainable situation for Americans in communities of all sizes."
A collaboration between Strong Towns and Urban3 argues for more local-driven initiatives, including matching microgrants for property improvements, reform of outdated and restrictive zoning and building codes, and improving walkability (Marohn 2020). Others have suggested a rural housing initiative, investment in local human capital, taking advantage of specific local assets like access to natural areas, and encouraging immigration (Menner 2018, Benfield and Epstein 2012, Brown 2018, Gilmartin and Hurley 2018). Another Brookings study suggests several initiatives President Biden and the next Congress could undertake to update struggling economies as well as the bewildering array of federal rural policies, including access to broadband and financial capital; regional integration; and thorough policy review (Pipa and Geismar 2020).
An Iowa that acts to support its strong towns and rural areas will be a stronger, more attractive state in years to come. But symbolic acts of resentment--"defunding" Planned Parenthood, preempting school districts' and county auditors' attempts to operate during the pandemic, passing bill after bill against gun control or abortion, banning non-existent Sanctuary Cities--are cheaper and easier. "Let's stop pretending it was 'economic anxiety,'" Democratic pollster Conrad Belcher told the Washington Post. "That ugliness is about tribalism. Many of the most hotly contested states are ground zero of the changes happening in America.... Where this battle is hottest is where diversity is greatest" (Rucker and Costa 2020).
Iowa ranks 11th among U.S. states in how much our demographics resemble the America of the 1950s (Kentucky is 1st; Kolko 2016). We can't and shouldn't try to preserve that; continuing down the road of tribalism would make the whole state, including where cities have been successful, less attractive. For now, it may be enough to say with Lyz Lenz:
This town, this state, it belongs as much to me as it does to anyone else. I don't know why I keep waiting around for Iowans to say I belong. I belong. I have now lived here longer than I have lived anywhere else. And truly, the problems here exist everywhere: it's just easier to hide from them in other places.... And I don't know who needs to hear this, but the place you are, it belongs to you, too.... Even if you have to watch as local politicians annually debate your right to make your own healthcare choices. Even if you have to watch people who make your body and your life a joke get reelected over and over. (Lenz 2020)
Lenz concludes, "I am here, and I love this town," and so am I; the state's attractions cannot be denied, its successful places are successful for good reasons, and the brain drain in most of the state is likely to remain at most at a steady trickle. Still, the future of the state depends on us committing to having one, which is difficult when nostalgia and resentment keep winning at the polls.
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