What's Happening in Illinois?

 

Illinois State Capitol, Springfield
"Just outside Chicago, there's a place called Illinois"
(70s tourism slogan)

My native state of Illinois lost another chunk of population this year, according to Vintage 2022 estimates released last week by the U.S. Census Bureau. Illinois's population losses stand out, even by the standards of the Midwest, which has lost 0.3 percent of its population since the 2020 Census. , Illinois has declined 1.8 percent in the last two years; the next-sharpest declines, in Michigan and Ohio, were only 0.4 percent each. In the middle of those states, Indiana has gained 0.7 percent. Even Iowa looks comparatively good, at plus 0.3 percent. Nationwide, only New York and the District of Columbia (both -.2.6 percent) lost more of their population over the last two years than Illinois. [On the other hand, in 2022 Illinois ranked second in the Midwest (3.1 percent) behind South Dakota (3.5 percent) in percentage increase in employment. There's more than one metric around, and population may not be the best indicator of a state's well-being.]

From 2010 to 2022, the U.S. as a whole has gained not quite 8 percent in population. In that time, Illinois has lost 0.17 percent, ranking ahead of only Mississippi (-0.24 percent) and West Virginia (-3.84 percent) (World Population Review 2022). The clearest story to explain this has come from the right; Pete Saunders (2022a) characterizes their version as centering on Chicago as the 21st century American Urban Dystopia--staggering crime and violence, frighteningly bad public schools, and high taxes that do more to support rampant political corruption than quality public services. It follows the only effective remedy would be a sort of militarized neoliberalism: cut taxes and services, privatize education, stomp on the criminals, can the racial justice stuff, and vote Republican. This is supposedly how they get it done in sunnier areas and wealthy suburbs (cf. Voegli 2022).

Illinois is losing population in non-metropolitan areas.

When we examine data at the county level, though, Illinois' story gets considerably more complicated. Its 102 counties can be divided among census-defined metropolitan areas (40 counties in 13 metros), micropolitan areas (23 counties in 19 micros), and purely rural areas (the remaining 39 counties). Only one county, Kendall at the edge of the Chicago/Naperville/Elgin MSA, grew faster than the U.S. as a whole; two others, Monroe south of St. Louis, and Johnson near Carbondale in southern Illinois, came close.

Illinois and its 102 counties
(Creative Commons)

In all, 15 counties in Illinois gained at least some population from 2010 to 2022. These include eight of the nine counties in the Chicago MSA, Champaign County (home of the University of Illinois), McLean County (home of Illinois State University), two of the three counties in the Carbondale/Marion MSA (home of Southern Illinois University), Monroe County in the St. Louis MSA, and rural Carroll County in rural western Illinois. Each surely has its own story to tell, but here are some observable patterns, few of which are unique to Illinois:

• Successful urban areas, around Chicago and the largest universities, are propping up the rest of the state, though not growing as fast as successful metros elsewhere in the country 
• The state is hemorrhaging outside the metros, with 60 of 62 micropolitan and rural counties losing population, 16 by more than 10.0 percent
• Sangamon County (Springfield) is holding almost steady with a 0.68 percent population loss since 2010, though Springfield hasn't been able to capitalize--ha ha!--on the headquarters of state government as have Des Moines, St. Paul, Madison, Indianapolis, and Columbus
• Some urban areas are not doing well at all, possibly because of commitments to outdated industries (Decatur, Kankakee, Peoria, Rockford, St. Louis); the same might be said of the Quad Cities, although Scott County, Iowa (Davenport) is growing
• The two biggest drops among micropolitan counties are McDonough (-19.77 percent) and Coles (-15.61 percent), home to regional state universities that have suffered precipitous enrollment losses... a sort of Rust Belt of the mind as higher education evolves

Malpass Library, Western Illinois University, McDonough County,
where your humble blogger started his teaching career
(from wiu.edu)

Illinois' loss of population is obviously not a single problem, but a confluence of several phenomena which are probably best addressed separately:

1. Why has there been so much population loss in rural places? Can something be done in some of these areas (tourism, local industry, organic food) to revive some of these places?
2. What can be done with struggling industrial (or small university) cities?
3. Why isn't Chicago (or Champaign-Urbana, Carbondale, and/or Bloomington-Normal) growing faster than it is?

Of course, realizing this doesn't explain why their combined effects is so strong in Illinois; Wisconsin and Michigan, for two, have a lot of the same characteristics.

Cairo, Illinois, seat of Alexander County (372 miles from Chicago),
largest proportionate population loss among Illinois counties

But, what about Chicago?

Despite the evidence, for whatever reason(s), when discussing Illinois' problems a lot of talk turns to Chicago.  As we've seen, Chicago and environs are growing, not shrinking, but perhaps they could be growing faster? 

A good place to start is "Tottering Chicago," a series of insightful blog posts by Chicago-based writer Pete Saunders. 

Pete Saunders
(from businessinsider.com)

It's worth reading in toto, but a key point Saunders makes is that Rust Belt "legacy" cities like Chicago are in a different situation than New York ("knowledge economy-based city" that now must deal with the consequences of its success) or Dallas (looking good due to a recent air conditioning- and Interstate highway- and low wage- and annexation-fueled growth spurt). "There are signs that Chicago is making very real progress in its transformation," Sanders suggests, "yet there are deeply rooted challenges that root Chicago down, and that gets discussed more than its positives." 

Saunders notes that since 2010, Chicago has added 97,000 households city-wide, the core of the city has grown faster since 1980 than any other American city, and has been successfully attracting recent college graduates. [Saunders also notes the limitations of using population growth/decline as a surrogate for a place's success (Saunders 2022b).] Poverty persists, but the principal crisis--and biggest threat to sustained prosperity--has been an increase during the pandemic of "frightening" crime: homicide, carjacking, and overall gun-involved violent crime. The bottom line:

Chicago has a thriving, dense core; some prosperous communities on the outskirts; and a vast, mostly poor, less-populated hinterland in between. Bridging that gap may not be impossible, but there's much work to be done. (Saunders 2022a)

Loft apartments by the Bloomingdale ("606") Trail, Chicago

Chicago's reality is far from a perfect, but also far from the doomsday fantasies of, say, recent Trump-style gubernatorial candidate Darren Bailey. Saunders concludes (Saunders 2022e) with some recommendations for Chicago and other Rust Belt cities similarly situated, which might have some lessons for Rockford and Peoria as well:

1. "Be who you are." Acknowledge and build on strengths, and avoid radical solutions that try to replicate 1980s Dallas. Avoid all ideologues, rightists and leftists, selling pet formulae for success.
2. "Lean in on immigration." Unfortunately, this requires more coherence and less hostility in national policy, but do whatever can be done. 
3. "Promote affordable urbanism and authenticity." Chicago offers urban life at a much lower cost than New York or Seattle; done right, this could work in smaller metros as well.
4. "Boutique manufacturing," by which he means more artisanal workshops, leaving the big plants to chase lower labor costs in the South and across the border.
5. "Water security." Shore up environmental infrastructure, and prepare for climate refugees.

What is to be done?

Addressing Illinois begins by acknowledging its complexity: Illinois is more than Chicago, and Illinois's problems are more than Chicago's. The biggest population losses are occurring in rural areas where small towns are no longer needed to service family farms, and that indicates a different set of policy approaches--although immigration is going to be a start here, too (cf. Frey 2023 and Pipa 2022). Don't wait on the federal government to act, either. 

Each region of the state, moreover, consists of a complex set of people, all of whom have something to bring to the conversation that deserves to be heard--heard without ascribing irrationality or corruption. Voegli figures the only reason people of means still live in Chicago is that they are cultural snobs who would rather be assaulted by urban criminals than live around conservatives. Don't be like him.

Jackson Boulevard, downtown Chicago,
Illinois' most economically productive district

We can't do everything everybody wants, and we shouldn't do everything anybody wants, but we need to hear everybody and take account of them all. Who knows where complementary interests might be found? Besides this...

• Look for ways, the less radical the better, to improve the lived experience of current residents. Small steps can be simply expanded or rescinded; radical moves and "game-changers" cannot be. (cribbed from Strong Towns)
• Illinois's reputation for high taxes and urban crime, however exaggerated, aren't helping its image or the mood of its people. (Do taxes explain why Rock Island, Rockford and Cairo are shrinking while towns across the border are growing?) Addressing these needs to be part of whatever gets done.
• Agreeing in part with Voegli, look for every opportunity to improve the quality and quantity of education in the state (cf. Gilmartin and Hurley 2018, Frey 2019)--as long as we strive to include everyone, because...
• Every policy proposal needs to take into account the role of racial discrimination in creating the world in which we live. 
• Every policy proposal needs to take into account all the ways we have sought to accommodate motor vehicles, at the cost of our community, our environment, and our bodies.

Quincy L stop, Chicago Loop

Cities in the 2020s

Source: istockphoto.com

These are the days of miracle and wonder--PAUL SIMON

This week, National Public Radio's "Marketplace Morning Report" discussed economic forecasts by the Oxford Economic Group which expects weak global economic growth in the near future, including the U.S. (Safo 2019). Actual results may vary, of course, and the authors suggest the cities best situated for a prosperous early 2020s are those outstanding on dimensions of economic mix, cost of living, and quality of life. So the U.S. urban economy expected to grow the most in 2020-21 is... San Francisco??

I'm not questioning the report's methodology, rather taking it as read, because [a] it's proprietary, and [b] I'm cheap. But San Francisco's cost of living is infamously high, particularly housing. Its cost of living ranked #2 among U.S. cities in 2019 by Kiplinger, trailing only the Borough of Manhattan (which is only part of a city), thanks to "years of relentless growth driven by high-paid tech workers." Average apartment rent: $3821 a month. So, given their criteria, however is San Francisco #1?

Poster, City Lights Bookstore, July 2014

Put another way, if San Francisco is in the best position in spite of its ridiculously high housing costs, what does that say about the rest of the country? For example, what is going to happen in Chicago, which ranks at the bottom of Oxford's list, thanks to the frightening budget and tax picture in the State of Illinois? What about small cities and rural areas, which can't compete with the big places for economic mix (or, arguably, for quality of life)?

The "winner-take-all" nature of the post-industrial economy applies not only to individuals but also to places (though see Sawhill 2019 for the argument that this situation results from political choices as well as economic fundamentals). In the modern tech economy, wrote Emily Badger (cited below) in The New York Times around the time Amazon made its HQ2 announcement, cities that already have wealth, opportunity, highly educated workers and high salaries will just keep attracting more of them.... A small number of rich and internationally connected cities keep increasing their economic advantages--and as a result, the inequality widens between them and everywhere else.

It looks like the 2020s will feature a big shakeout. I hope it won't hurt, but it probably will. Interestingly, Brookings scholars' list of the biggest economic stories of the 2010s focus less on places than on individuals (tax cuts for the rich, rising inequality, lower life expectancy, fewer teens in the workforce) and systems (monetary policy stuck on full-blast, good news on health care access and cost, no worker productivity gains, aging population). But it's fair to say that the fall-out from most of these individual- and system-level trends will impact localities, too, and not all localities to the same degree. Localities will have, already have, fewer resources to address either rising individual vulnerabilities or cutthroat economic competition.

Maybe the 2020s will be the placid sort of decade in which these sorts of issues can be thoughtfully sorted out. The 2010s certainly were, when you compare them to its immediate predecessor which featured a small recession, a massive terrorist attack, a debilitating war, and finally the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression. The 2010s have been quite a breather, comparatively, apart from a series of unforced errors. Future generations may well wonder why we squandered this opportunity in government shutdowns, highway construction, and the odoriferous politics of Donald Trump. The tasks of the 2020s will be hard enough without the possibility of additional pressure from:

• an economic downturn
• employment issues for the rest (of workers, of places)
• natural disasters exacerbated by climate change
• increasing refugee flows
• increasing homelessness, due to rising incidence of mental illness and/or poverty (see Hu 2019)
• changes in energy prices and supply
• intensified inter-group hostility
• crumbling infrastructure on which maintenance has been deferred too long

Pete Saunders, a planner and blogger from the industrial Midwest, anticipates the decade to come might fulfill the transition period underway throughout the 2010s, turning away from the auto-centric era that ran from World War II until the last decade's housing crisis.

Our development future will be even more urban.  It will be based more on the mobility options and opportunities --autonomous and alternatively fueled vehicles -- that will expand this century.  It will be more economically unequal in America, as America's economy becomes more equal with the rest of the world.   And our development patterns will be something that will adapt to the demands put on it by climate change. [For the next twenty years:] The rebirth of cities actually does take hold nationally, as growth filters downward from our superstar coastal cities to other cities.  Interior cities will tout their assets and amenities and become cheaper alternatives to the coasts. (Saunders 2019)

This fulfillment will be facilitated if millennials stay in cities, as seems to be happening where such opportunities exist (Lewyn 2019), rather than coming to expect the same subsidized suburban development their parents came to expect. It will require the masters of capital to notice all the talent in the cost-efficient interior of the country, and to move to take advantage of it, and for interior cities to position themselves for strength--culturally as well as physically and financially. It will require a willingness to adapt to climate change, even if we have to call it something else to soothe the deniers.

Some days my town seems to be about attracting entrepreneurs and removing obstacles to traditional development, and some days its long-term plan seems to consist of subdivisions and strip malls, not to mention the casino. I guess the glass is never entirely full, nor is it entirely empty, and that history progresses incrementally, even imperceptibly. Whatever this new decade brings, may there always be voices of hope and visions of common life.

SOURCES:
 Emily Badger, "The Same Cities Keep Attracting Tech. Why?" New York Times, 8 November 2018, B1, B2
 Winnie Hu, "Please, Don't Have a Seat," New York Times, 8 November 2019, A22
 Michael Lewyn, "Are Cities Really Losing Millennials?" Planetizen, 23 December 2019
 Nova Safo, "Economic Growth for U.S. Cities Will Depend on Mix of Industries," Marketplace, 23 December 2019
 Pete Saunders, "Revisiting the 'Big Theory' on American Urban Development," Corner Side Yard, 23 December 2019

SEE ALSO: "What Defined the Decade Since CityLab Launched," CityLab, 30 December 2019
EARLIER POSTS:
"Globalization's Challenge to Cities," 25 June 2016
"Can Cities Change Their Luck?" 20 June 2016
"Two Tales of Cities," 7 June 2016